The Impact of AI Coding Assistants on Software Engineering: A Longitudinal Study

2026-05-25

Authors: Annie Vella, Kelly Blincoe

ArXiv: 2605.23135v1

PDF: Download PDF

For the past few years, every conference talk and vendor pitch has told us that AI coding assistants are going to transform software engineering. But what do the people actually using them think — not in a vendor-run demo, but six months into the grind of their real day jobs? This study tries to answer that with something rare in this space: actual longitudinal data.

The authors surveyed professional software engineers at two points six months apart, ending up with 158 responses in the first round, 101 in the second, and a matched cohort of 95 people who answered both times. That matched cohort is the gold here — it lets the researchers see how individual engineers' opinions changed as the honeymoon period wore off and the tools became part of routine work.

The headline finding from the abstract is that participants reported spending less time on most development tasks. That's the productivity story everyone expected. But the more interesting parts of a study like this are usually in the texture: how task focus shifts, how the experience of being a developer changes, and where the gains actually come from versus where they evaporate.

A few things make this paper worth paying attention to:

The key insight, even at the abstract level, is that the conversation has to move past "do AI assistants make developers faster?" That's a settled question for most tasks. The harder questions are: faster at what, at what cost to deep focus and learning, and whether the productivity gains persist or fade once novelty wears off and the harder edge cases dominate the work that's left.

Why it matters: This is one of the first longitudinal looks at how AI coding assistants actually affect working engineers over time, moving the debate past hype-cycle snapshots toward evidence about durable impact on productivity and developer experience.

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